Quantifying the shift of public export finance from fossil fuels to renewable energy

 

By providing guarantees and direct lending, public export credit agencies (ECAs) de-risk and thus enable energy projects worldwide. Despite their importance for global greenhouse gas emission pathways, a systematic assessment of ECAs’ role and financing patterns in the low-carbon energy transition is still needed. Using commercial transaction data, we analyze 921 energy deals backed by ECAs from 31 OECD and non-OECD countries (excluding Canada) between 2013 and 2023. We find that while the share of renewables in global ECA energy commitments rose substantially between 2013 and 2023, ECAs remain heavily involved in the fossil fuel sector, with support varying substantially across technologies, value chain stages, and countries. Portfolio ‘greening’ is primarily driven by members of the E3F climate club, impacting deal financing structures and shifting finance flows towards high-income countries. Our results call for reconsidering ECA mandates and strengthening international climate-related cooperation in export finance.

 

Speaker: Paul Waidelich, Researcher at ETH Zurich’s Energy and Technology Policy Group.

Dr. Paul Waidelich is a postdoc at ETH Zurich’s Energy and Technology Policy Group, where he completed his PhD in 2024. His research focuses on the financing of low-carbon technologies, the role of public financial policy, and the financial impacts of climatic shifts. Before joining ETH Zurich, Paul worked at NERA Economic Consulting, advising energy companies, regulators, and financial investors on electricity, natural gas, and hydrogen markets. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of Heidelberg and a Master’s degree in environmental economics from LSE.

Discussant: Samuel Fankhauser, Professor of Climate Change Economics and Policy at the University of Oxford

Sam Fankhauser is Professor of Climate Economics and Policy at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford, and Research Director of Oxford Net Zero. He is also an Official Fellow of Reuben College, where he leads the college’s environmental change theme. Before moving to Oxford, Sam was Director of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics. He has also worked at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the World Bank, and the Global Environment Facility. He was an inaugural member of the UK Climate Change Committee and a Non-Executive Director of CDC Group (now British International Investment), the UK’s development finance institution.

Moderator: Johannes Emmerling, Researcher at CMCC

Johannes Emmerling is a Senior Scientist at EIEE and co-leads its Low carbon pathways unit. Johannes holds a Ph.D. from the Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), an M.A. in Economics from the Free University Berlin, and a B.Sc. in Economics from the University of Heidelberg. He was a postgraduate fellow in Development Cooperation at the German Development Institute, Bonn. His main areas of research include Climate Change and Energy Economics, Risk and Uncertainty, Welfare Economics, and Development. He has co-authored over fifty articles in peer-reviewed journals and is an Associate Editor of the Public Finance Review.