Date: 17 December 2025
Time: 15.00 – 16.00 CET
Current national emissions targets are recognized as insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement goals, prompting the need for equitable ways to close this gap. Fair emissions allowances rely on effort-sharing formulas based on fairness principles, yielding diverse outcomes. These variations, shaped by normative decisions, complicate policymaking and legal assessments of climate targets. The analysis provides up-to-date numbers, comprehensively accounting for three dimensions—physical and social uncertainties, global strategies and equity—and their impacts on each country’s emissions allowance.
In the short run, normative considerations substantially impact fair emissions allowances—directing current discussions to this debate—while global discussions on temperature targets and non-CO2 emissions take over in the long run. Evidence shows that many countries have insufficient nationally determined contributions in light of fairness, with implications for increased domestic mitigation and financing emissions reductions abroad—yielding a total international finance flux of $US0.5–7.4 trillion in 2030.
Organised by the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC).
Speaker: Mark Dekker, post-doctoral researcher at the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)
Discussant: Nico Bauer, senior scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Moderator: Lara Aleluia Reis, researcher at CMCC
